Ethereum ‘March 2020’ fractal hints at price bottom — But ETH bears predict 50% crash

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Ethereum ‘March 2020’ fractal hints at price bottom — But
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Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), eyes a strong bullish reversal after losing 25% from its November high of $1,675, according to a bottom fractal spotted by independent market analyst Wolf.

Can Ethereum price compare its March 2020 fractal?  

Wolf compares Ethereum’s multi-month downtrend between May 2018 and March 2020 with a similar but relatively shorter correction after July 2022. If the move repeats, that means the price of Ether has bottomed in November 2022, according to the analyst, as shown below.

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ETH/USD 2019-20 and 2022 price performance comparison. Source: TradingView/Wolf

Wolf draws cues from March 2020’s Ethereum price crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic — a black swan event. Similarly, ETH price was pushed down in November 2022 due to another black swan — the collapse of cryptocurrency exchange FTX.

But ETH/USD rebounded aggressively after the March 2020 crash, boosted by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts that injected more money into the economy, part of which flowed into the crypto market.

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Similarly, in November 2022, Ether’s modest recovery post-FTX “black swan” coincides with growing expectations of the Fed slowing its rate hikes. Thus, Ether has a good chance of repeating the March 2020 fractal to new monthly highs.

Moreover, independent market analyst Cold Blood Shiller sees a “clear breakout point” on Ethereum’s daily chart, namely its Awesome Oscillator (AO) and Relative Strength Index (RSI). Both indicators appear to have been flipping bullish recently, as shown below.

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ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView/Cold Blood Shiller

Bears anticipate ETH losing another 50%

Nevertheless, Ether is currently down 75% from its record in November 2021, with the market seeing multiple bull traps since. 

Market analyst Aditya Siddhartha Roy notes the possible formation of a similar bull trap in the current mini uptrend, which he argues risks exhaustion near a multi-month descending resistance trendline.

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ETH/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView/Aditya Siddhartha Roy

A decisive pullback from the descending trendline would push Ether toward $700, which may be a “possible bottom,” Roy explains. 

Related: Ethereum derivatives look bearish, but traders believe the ETH bottom is in

Roy’s analysis aligns with Ethereum’s symmetrical triangle setup, best visible on its longer-timeframe chart shown below, whose technical downside target is around $675.

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ETH/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

In other words, the ETH/USD pair is still at risk of dropping another 50% in early 2023.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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